NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Jan. 24): Buy Low on Luka Doncic?

Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 pm ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

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The Suns remain extremely shorthanded for Tuesday’s matchup vs the Hornets. Devin Booker other Cameron Payne are still out with long-term injuries, while Deandre Ayton other Landry Shamet have also been ruled out.

That means ChrisPaul should have to take on a larger workload than usual. He’s seen a team-high +4.7% usage bump with all four players off the floor this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by +3.8%. Paul has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 54.5 DraftKings points in his last outing.

The Hornets also represent a tremendous matchup. They rank 10th in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Suns’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks third on the slate. Paul’s $7,500 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%, so he checks a lot of boxes.


Value

The Pacers are another team with plenty of minutes available at the moment. Tyrese Haliburton is sidelined with elbow and knee injuries, while Andrew Nembhard is questionable with an illness.

TJ McConnell has been delivering tremendous value for the Pacers recently, even with Nembhard active. He’s increased his production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 35.75 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games. That includes 55.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, thanks to a triple-double.

McConnell’s price tag is starting to creep up, but he remains one of the best per-dollar options in our NBA Models.


Fast break

Alex Caruso stands out as an excellent value play on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a 99% Bargain Rating. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 35.5 DraftKings points in two of them. He’s capable of contributing in every category of the box score, giving him a solid floor and ceiling at his current price tag.

Luka Doncic has come back to reality of late, scoring 46.0 FanDuel points or fewer in three of his past four games. That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $11,900 on FanDuel, and while that still makes him the most expensive player on the slate, it’s a bargain for Doncic. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.97 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), so he’s a nice buy-low target.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

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DeMar DeRozan has been priced up to $8,800 on FanDuel, which represents an increase of +$800 from his salary on Monday. That’s a big jump for one day, but DeRozan still stands out as an outstanding pay-up option. DeRozan still owns a Bargain Rating of 88%, while his 13 Pro Trends are the top mark at the position.

DDR has averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he benefits from an excellent matchup vs. the Pacers. They rank second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Bulls’ implied team total of 118.0 ranks first on the slate. DeRozan also owns an excellent individual matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.66.


Value

The Celtics’ injury report is going to be important to monitor. Marcus Smart other Malcolm Brogdon both missed Monday’s loss to the Magic, and their status for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Heat is currently unknown.

If both players are out again, Derrick White would become an excellent value play. He scored 27.5 DraftKings points in Monday’s loss, and he did it in just 26.5 minutes. White is projected for more than 33 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should see significantly more playing time on Tuesday’s slate.


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Bennedict Mathurin is another strong option to consider for the Pacers. Mathurin has struggled since the team lost Haliburton, but his outlook is still positive moving forward. He’s seen a +3.6% usage bump with Haliburton off the floor this season, and that figure increases to +5.0% with Nembhard also off the floor.

Corey Kispert is dirt cheap at $3,100 on DraftKings, and he should see plenty of minutes for the Wizards on Tuesday. He’s currently projected for more than 27 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.98.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

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Kyle Kuzma has put together some huge games for the Wizards of late. He’s scored at least 52.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four outings, and he’s had at least 59.25 in two of them. Bradley Beal is still being worked back into the rotation, and Kuzma has had to take over as the team’s top scoring threat in his absence.

the Rui Hachimura trade could also open up a few additional minutes for Kuzma. He’s currently projected for 37.05 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the fourth-most among SFs on DraftKings.


Value

Sticking with the Wizards, Deni Avdija figures to be the biggest beneficiary of the Hachimura trade. It solidifies his spot in the rotation, and the no. 9 pick from the 2020 NBA Draft is projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models. Avdija has struggled to make a consistent impact since joining the league, but he has provided some fantasy value this season. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s averaged 32.15 DraftKings points in 15 games with at least 28 minutes.


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CameronJohnson is back for the Suns, and they absolutely need his offensive production. He’s played in two of their past three games, and he returned to the starting lineup in their most recent contest. He finished with just under 30 minutes in that outing and should take another step forward in that department vs. the Hornets. Johnson has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced at $5,200 on FanDuel.

LeBronJames just keeps rolling. He’s officially questionable for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Clippers, but if he’s in the lineup, he makes a lot of sense as a low-ownership stud for tournaments. James has dominated of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.50 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he has five games with at least 60 FanDuel points in that stretch.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

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Julius Randle Emerged as an All-Star for the Knicks in 2020-21, but he turned in a subpar season last year. Thankfully, he’s back to providing elite production for the Knicks and DFS players this season. He’s been red-hot since the end of December, averaging 28.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 4.7 assists over his past 17 games. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and no one at the position is projected for more minutes on Tuesday. That’s a nice combination.

Randle will face a tough matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank last in pace and second in defensive efficiency. However, they haven’t been quite as effective at stopping big men, and Randle owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.78 on DraftKings. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he’s provided one of the safest floors in fantasy for most of the year.


Value

Sticking with the Knicks, they’re currently playing without starting center Mitchell Robinson. That gives Randle a slight boost – particularly on the glass – but Jericho Sims is the biggest beneficiary. He’s played at least 28.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s racked up at least 24.75 DraftKings points in both contests. Sims actually got to 33.3 minutes Monday vs. the Raptors, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year. If he sees a comparable workload vs. the Cavaliers, he should deliver excellent value at just $3,900.


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Dwight Powell deserves consideration as a punt play on FanDuel, where he has PF/C eligibility at just $3,900. Powell isn’t the best producer per minute, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume on Tuesday. He’s projected for 25 minutes vs. the Wizards, and Powell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.95 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

I’m going to continue to chase Myles Turner‘s elite ceiling, particularly given his dual eligibility on FanDuel. He’s scored at least 45.9 FanDuel points the last three times he’s played more than 23 minutes, and he’s scored at least 52.8 FanDuel points in two of them. His minutes may vary wildly from night-to-night, but very few players can match his upside when he hits his minute ceiling.

NBA DFS center picks

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Nikola Jokić has missed the Nuggets’ past two games, and he’s officially questionable for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans. When Jokic has been on the floor this season, he’s been the best player in fantasy. He’s averaged 1.76 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s increased that figure to 1.82 over the past month. He’s racked up at least 69.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, recording 30-point triple-doubles in each.

Ultimately, no in basketball is capable of doing what Jokic does for the Nuggets on a nightly basis. His ownership could be a bit depressed if he does suit up on Tuesday, and targeting Jokic at reduced ownership is always a good idea.


Value

With Ayton out for the Suns, Bismack Biyombo will likely draw the start at center. He was dominant in that role two games ago, finishing with 42.0 DraftKings points in just under 30 minutes, but he came crashing back to reality with 9.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. However, he was limited to just 15.8 minutes due to foul trouble.

Biyombo should see at least mid-20s minutes if he can avoid hacking everything that moves on Tuesday, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him a nice value at just $3,600.


Fast break

Daniel Gaford should be another beneficiary of the Hachimura trade. His minutes have been volatile this season, but he’s currently projected for more than 27 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s another excellent value at the position.

Mason Plumlee continues to absolutely crush for fantasy players. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.95 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 45.25 DraftKings points in three of his past six games. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling at $6,800.

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